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Barbara Harff

Political scientist — risk modeling · United States (US Naval Academy, emerita)

Affiliated with Political Instability Task Force (PITF)

Government-funded research

Pioneered quantitative models for forecasting genocide and politicide risk; built the genocide/politicide component of the PITF dataset.

Funding & financing

Her risk-modeling work was conducted for the CIA-funded Political Instability Task Force.

Affiliations

Long association with the US-government-sponsored PITF.

Disclosures & conflicts

Core genocide/politicide risk modeling was produced under CIA-funded Political Instability Task Force sponsorship — an important transparency consideration when weighing model outputs as neutral science.

Credibility & caveats

A foundational figure in atrocity early-warning modeling, widely cited. Her core data work was produced under US-intelligence-community sponsorship.

Cases in this record

This source informs the record’s methodology, data, or risk assessment rather than a specific case determination. See the methodology for how sources like this are used.

Sources & disclosures